McCain Can Win Nomination But Not The General Election
There are less than five days left until Super Tuesday. Chances are by Midnight Tuesday we will know who the Republican standard bearer is going to be. In watching this week’s Wednesday night CNN debate it seemed to me Romney and Huckabee are the only two candidates left who could carry forward the conservative movement. Both are flawed candidates but either would be preferable to McCain. Conservatives need to choose between Romney and Huckabee and it would be better if they made that choice before Super Tuesday. The default candidate is John McCain. So let’s take a look at where we are.
McCain has emerged in the last two weeks as the candidate of the RINOS, liberals and the Republican establishment. One by one, leaders in the establishment are coming out for McCain at strategic times in order to influence primary voters. Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced his endorsement for McCain on the day of the Florida primary. On Wednesday Rudy Giuliani and Governor Swartznager announced their endorsements for McCain just before the Semi Valley CNN debate in order to get maximum media coverage.
In spite of the fact that the media is attempting to sell McCain as the consensus candidate he has yet to get a majority of the Republican vote, much less the conservative vote. In the Florida primary he received only 20% of the conservative vote. In other words, 80% of the conservatives who voted rejected McCain as their candidate. Conservatives will be faced with a difficult choice on February 5th. A vote for either Romney or Huckabee will be, in effect, a vote for McCain because Romney and Huckabee are drawing from the same pool of conservative voters.
John McCain can not win the November election. No Republican candidate in recent memory has won the Presidency without the support of conservatives and McCain is not going to get enough of that support. Turnout for the November election is on track to be the largest in history. Democrats are going to have a gigantic turnout of voters anxious to cast their ballot for the first woman or the first black President in history. To counter that Republicans are going to need every vote they can muster. They will also need to shatter all previous records for voter turnout. That will not happen unless conservatives have a candidate they can enthusiastically support.
Over the past two months I have written at least a dozen posts defending or supporting Mike Huckabee and more than one criticizing Mitt Romney as someone whose conservative credentials could not be fully trusted. I have not changed my mind on either. Fred Thompson was actually my first choice but he is no longer running. I know a good Republican will support the Republican candidate whoever he or she may be. Being a “good” Republican means a willingness to put the party above all else. However, being a good Republican does not always mean doing what is best for the country or for the conservative movement.
Millions of conservatives place the good of the Republican Party third or fourth on their list of priorities, behind God, country, and conservatism. Many will consider four years of Hillary or Barrack preferable to eight years of McCain. George Bush’s “passionate conservatism” has been damaging to the conservative movement, McCain’s brand of “conservatism” would damage it even more. On the other hand, it is likely that opposition to the socialism of Hillary or Barrack would serve to strengthen the conservative movement should either of them become our next President.
I like Huckabee, but there is no way he can win a majority of the electoral votes during the primaries. The best he can hope for is to force the choice into a brokered convention in September and hope the delegates will select him as their candidate on the second or third ballot. That no longer appears feasible. Delegates at the convention, after the first vote, will be heavily influenced by the Republican establishment and as things now stand it would be predisposed toward John McCain.
It will be extremely difficult for Mitt Romney to win the majority necessary for the nomination as long as he is forced to compete with Huckabee for the same conservative voters. Continuing competition between them will more than likely force a brokered convention giving the nod to McCain and thus assuring the election of Hillary Clinton or Barrack Obama in November.
Voting patterns have shown that Huckabee’s support relies heavily on evangelical voters. Evangelicals are not a monolithic voting block. While they are mostly socially conservative on moral issues that conservatism does not always carry over to the conservative principles of small government and less social spending. This can easily be demonstrated by the large number of evangelical votes for McCain and their frequent support of government social programs.
Illinois, my home state, is one of the Super Tuesday states and its delegates are apportioned among the candidates according to their votes. After much consideration, I will be voting for Mitt Romney on Tuesday and I encourage my fellow conservatives to do the same for the sake of the conservative movement and the future of the country.