Flash index show recession hasn’t hit Illinois yet
URBANA – The University of Illinois flash economic index in February rose for the second straight month after six months of decline.
“It appears the recession hasn’t arrived in Illinois,” said economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the index for the UI’s Institute of Government and Public Affairs.
The index, considered a barometer of the Illinois economy, rose from 103.8 in January to 104.1 in February, Giertz said. Readings above 100 indicate economic growth; those below 100 indicate contraction.
“We’re still moving along at a modest pace, but that doesn’t mean a recession in the state might not be around the corner,” Giertz said.
The index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before rates are calculated.
Corporate tax receipts in February were up markedly from February 2007 as the result of a departure from historical collection patterns, Giertz said. Individual income tax receipts were up, while sales tax receipts were down slightly.
“It would be expected that February in a leap year would result in slightly higher receipts,” Giertz said. “This was taken into account in the flash index calculations.”